I'll answer the latter question first. Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays are for real. Any team with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena stands a solid chance to win a division, especially when their young pitching and supporting cast is playing well.
As far as the tougher Yankees question goes, it is looking like it might get a little easier to answer. Looking back over the last week in baseball, it seems the tides may be turning a bit in baseball's best division. The Bronx Bombers are 12-6 in their last 18 games and have won four of the last five. Alex Rodriguez's return from the DL, coupled with the reemergence of Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi has propelled the Yanks offensivley. They are averaging 6.5 runs a game over the aforementioned span and put up eight or more runs in six of those games (one extra inning loss). Their pitching is struggling a bit, but Joba Chamberlain and Dan Giese's recent appearances should give them some hope.With the Yankees surging, this is the worst time possible for the Sox and Rays to start infighting. With over a month until the All-Star break, there is plenty of ground to catch-up before the Yankees have everyone dissecting them while they are in the spotlight and hosts of the game.
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